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For races in which a single horse was selected

SEPTEMBER  STATISTICS - 466 SELECTIONS

% Win     % Place      % Show      % 4th      % Out 

    40              20               16              10            14

OCTOBER  1-18, STATISTICS 

% Win     % Place      % Show      % 4th      % Out 

    41              19               16               4             21

 Additional statistics listed below.

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1:39  FL2

  #3 - I'm Not Joking (8/5) - Ran big at Monmouth prior to recent slop disappointment; drops 

2:08  FL3

  #2 - Operative (3/2) - Missed by a nose in latest with blinkers back on; gets 2nd LT win

3:06  FL5

  #6 - Night Escort (9/5) - Won both sprint attempts since the addition of shades; gets 3rd

3:10  PRX6

  #6 - Caramel Cream (4/1) - In the money in last 3; finds this field to her liking

3:37  PRX7

  #4 - Naughty Prince (9/5) - 2 2nds and 2 3rds from last 4 starts; gets favorable trip

3:58  IND4

  #3 - Tapit's Spirit (2/1) - Won last 2 since return from respite; gets the hat trick

4:04  FL7

  #2 - I Found It (2/1) - 1 for 1 sprinting over a fast Finger Lakes surface; appears best

4:29  IND5

  #2 - King's Ovation (4/1) - Won lone start over the Indiana strip; keeps IND record clean

4:31  PRX9

  #5 - Munny Bolt (9/5) - Odds-on runner-up at Saratoga in latest; graduates today

Due to the positive response to the Longshot Lounge plays in the big races, the Longshot Lounge plays will become a part of the daily NationwideWinners.com plays.  To qualify for a Longshot Lounge play, the morning line must be 8/1 or higher.

October 24 Longshot Selection

1:41  BEL3

#1 - Dr Brownes Miracle (10/1) - Miracle showed signs of life in his debut, while keeping up most of the way before fading to finish about 9 1/2 lengths back.  The morning line makes this selection intriguing in that improvement is expected in his second start and the runner-up that was beaten by five lengths has already returned to graduate from the maiden ranks.  

October 15 Longshot Selection

7:29  SA8 - No good
#7 - Noble Union (12/1) - This is a percentage play as trainer John Shirreffs gave this colt a test drive  over the turf course in his debut.  He ran a decent 5th after a slow beginning and likely got some needed route conditioning from it.  The 2nd career start, 2nd route and turf to dirt angles are productive for this conditioner.  Worthy of consideration at a nice morning line price.

September 26 Longshot Selection

7:15  PID7 - SCRATCHED

#7 - Richiesgotgame (12/1) - Arlington Park perennial leading trainer, Larry Rivelli, ships this colt to Presque Isle for his fist start following the closing of Arlington.  He has an affinity for the all-weather surface as illustrated by his finishing first in all 3 of his starts on synthetic.  He takes on some tough customers, but it's worth the risk at the 12/1 morning line.  You gain added confidence if Larry opts for this spot, as RICHIE is cross-entered in the stake earlier on the card.

September 26 Longshot Selection

3:50  CD7 - 3RD

#2 - Latte Dolce (8/1) - LATTE had blinkers added three races back .  Since the equipment change, she has had a slop route, a turf sprint and a dirt sprint.  She won the dirt sprint by open lengths at Canterbury in wire-to-wire fashion.  Trainer Eric Heitzmann feels the timing is right to run for the big money at Churchill and his filly may surprise this bunch of entry-level allowance runners.

September 24 Longshot Selection 

6:45  GG5  - WON

#2 - Speedy Trip (10/1) - Trainer Bill Delia had speedy ready to roll after a 17-month layoff.  He entered the gelding for eight thousand and rolled over a field of cheap maidens.  It was a quick race for the level and the race was validated by the show horse returning to win next out.  It's a big step up, but if SPEEDY is up for it, he could provide the big surprise.

September 19 Longshot Selection 

5:16  BEL9 - 4TH

#2 - Our Flash Drive (15/1) - Evan at her 15/1 morning line, you can't really blame trainer Mark Casse for shipping OUR FLASH DRIVE to Belmont to try to take on tougher company.  She has won all three of her 2021 starts, including her lone start on turf.   Her class will get tested today, as will her ability to run without the anti-bleeder medication, Lasix. 

September 16 Longshot Selection 

7:54  CD7 - No good.

#7 - Gran Baby (10/1) - GRAN BABY made her US debut in a stake at Indiana Grand two races back and finished fourth while coming off a fifteen month layoff.  She held her own against a couple of the likely favored runners in this heat, missing by three lengths .  The mare regressed in her subsequent start, which is to be expected in second start after a very long layoff.  She  gets back on Lasix for this allowance start and could surprise if she moves forward off the US debut.

 
September 14 Longshot Selection 

4:04  PRX8 - Scratched

#7 - Chronology (8/1) - Lone start was going seven furlongs in the slop, a winning effort.  She didn't break particularly well in that start, but still managed to easily handle a group of Pennsylvania-bred maidens.  Given the fact that she may move forward off of that start with a better break and additional experience, CHRONOLOGY is worth a shot at the 10/1 morning line.

September 13 Longshot Selection

7:00  MNR1 - 5TH - The uneasiness about the rider was justified.  She didn't break cleanly.

#4 - Bobbobsbaby (12/1) - The connections for BOBBOB have done nothing but try to run this mare on the grass since the start of her 2020 season.  Unfortunately, she has only started on the grass once - a win.  A little uneasy about the rider change tonight, but to get 12/1, you have to accept a question mark here and there.  Renzo will have to get this mare on her way from the time they spring the latches.

September 8 Longshot Selection

8:11  EVD4 - 3RD - Bet down to even money.

#2 - Accustomed to Hope (10/1) - Have to have a little confidence in the new connections to make this play, but it's hardly a stretch considering  the mare is switching from a 7% barn to a 26% barn.  Take into consideration that there is already a successful connection with the rider and you have a very live first after claim longshot opportunity.

September 7 Longshot Selection

3:20  TDN6 - 2ND - Bet down to favoritism and missed by a length

#1 - Blushing Betty (8/1) - Betty has been in the care of trainer Stephen Trevino for two starts - both wins.  Erik Barbaran was up for both starts and he returns to ride again today.  Not likely to get the 8/1 morning line at post-time, so you may want to single her in multi-race exotics singling this leg to take advantage of what looks to be inflated program odds.

September 5 Longshot Selection

4:59  DMR2  - No good.  Sometimes oddsmakers are right.

#2 - Rowangoeshollywood (15/1) - Oddsmakers may have interpreted her recent wire-to-wire effort as a fluke while installing ROWAN as a 15/1 longshot in this Never 2 in Life for $25,000 sprint going five and a half furlongs.  The recent win did come as a result of the addition of Lasix with Abel Cedillo in the irons.  Cedillo and Lasix are still present, and the shorter distance will help.  Just have to hope it wasn't the fluke the oddsmakers perceived it was.

September 4 Longshot Selection

2:15  DEL3   - No good.  - The barn switch outweighed the positives

#6 - Sancocho (8/1) - This 4-year-old cold is switching barns for this start, so there is a negative to consider.  However, at the 8/1 morning line, SANCHOCHO is worthy of a second look as he has finished second in his last three starts over a fast dirt surface with tougher.  If you excuse the off surfaces and turf, he looks legit with this bunch.

September 1 Longshot Selection

6:02  IND8   - 3RD - No real excuse

#2 - Fever Temple (10/1) - Trainer Brandi Steele enlists the services of Marcelino Pedroza on FEVER once again after a couple races with Alex Achard up.  Marcelino had success on the turf with FEVER in the past and will attempt to revive that success in this Never 3 in Life allowance condition for Indiana-breds.  He fits in this race despite the 10/1 morning line indication.

August 29 Longshot Selections

1:58  GP3 - WON - Paid $6.60 - Bet down from 8/1 to 4/1 at post time, then from 4/1 to 2/1 during the race.

#1 - Playera (8/1) - PLAYERA has been more consistent since changing the pilot to Miguel Vasquez.  Miggy has won two of five starts on PLAYERA and she has been first or second each time while in for a claiming tag since Vasquez and Lasix have been added.  Chance at a price.

7:44  DMR6 - No good.  Claimed by Tim McCanna.

#5 - Rager  (12/1) - RAGER drops in for a $40,000 tag and gets reunited with Johnny V. for the first time since his nose victory at seventeen to one over entry-level allowance runners in April.  He produced a lifetime best speed figure in that event with Johnny as the pilot.  If he is capable of repeating that performance, he could once again pull off the big upset.

9:20  DMR9 - No good.  Took a awkward step on the 2nd turn and was not asked for run after that.

#1 - Willy the Cobbler (20/1) - It's bombs away if this one comes in.  There are some quality runners in this field, including the Kentucky Derby winner?  Trainer Steve Knapp is trying to strike while the iron is hot, as WILLY has won his last two starts handily.  He gets the acid test today, but the pace scenario should work to his favor and permit him to outrun his odds.

August 27 Longshot Selection

9:45  CT11 - WON - Paid  $12.80  $6.80  $5.40

#8 - R Adios Jersey (12/1) - ADIOS steps up into Grade 3 company for the first time and puts her unbeaten four win record on the line.  This seven-furlong event will have ADIOS going around two turns and racing Lasix-free for the first time in her career, but despite those firsts she is worth a shot while going postward as a non-favorite for the first time in her career.

August 14 Longshot Selection

4:20  TDN9  - WON - Paid  $9.80  $5.40  $4.40 

#11 - Dougie D Oro (8/1) - DOUGIE started his career in a disappointing fashion, being eased out of his debut early on in the race.  He returned to the races and reeled off 3 straight convincing victories before running 3rd and getting a break in training.  He has started his 2021 campaign with 2 straight victories and you're getting eight to one on a gelding that has three wins from four starts at Thistledown.

August 12 Longshot Selection

4:29  SAR7 - Scratched

#2 - Thief of Hearts (10/1) - In three career starts, THIEF OF HEARTS has one win and two out-of-the-money placings.  The one win came on a fast Churchill dirt surface, where the other two were on off tracks.  THIEF OF HEARTS gets back on a fast surface today and goes in for a reasonable claiming price.  Worth an investment at the Longshot Lounge odds.

August 10 Longshot Selection

4:29  IND5  - WON - Paid  $12.00  $6.60  $4.40  

#3 - Iron Lady Away (8/1) - Trainer Dan Pitts hasn't had much success on the turf or in sprints, which is why you may get a nice price on this filly that just led the way for a good portion of a decent-paced sprint her first time on the grass.  Have to ignore the percentages and hope the combination of filly/surface/conditioner become a productive scenario.

August 8 Longshot Selection

2:40  WO4 - No good.  Used up in speed duel while intent on getting the lead.  Faded in mid-stretch.

#4 - Crafty Conquest (12/1) - CRAFTY ran a decent fourth on the Woodbine synthetic in his 2021 debut while in with forty-thousand types.  Connections wasted a race on the grass and now drop this four-year-old gelding in for the never two in life condition for twenty-five thousand.  He appears well-meant as Emma-Jayne stays aboard for the event.

August 7 Longshot Selection

4:15  DEL7 - No good.  Didn't take to the grass.  Follow for rebound on dirt.

#8 - Dig Charlie Dig (8/1) - Connections have been trying to get CHARLIE on the grass for a while now.  Either they are hoping the races come off the grass (a couple did) or they genuinely feel CHARLIE has some turf ability.  At the Longshot Lounge level odds, it's worth a shot that it's the latter.

August 6 Longshot Selection

7:48  PEN4 - Fin. 3rd - Late rally with some traffic issues

#4 - Eskenfortime (8/1) - This play is a deja vu scenario.  Owner/Trainer Michael Salvaggio Jr. won with this gelding last year with a sprint to route angle at twenty-two to one.  He tries to repeat that feat here as he shortened ESKENFORTIME up in his latest start and now he is entered for the mile-and-seventy yards distance.  The sixty-two hundred claiming level is doable as he returned from his winter lay-up at the level and missed by only a couple lengths.

July 28  Longshot Selections

3:55  SAR6 - No good.  The what-ifs did not help in a positive way.

#1 - I Am the Law (10/1) - There are enough what-ifs about this chestnut colt to spark interest as a longshot play.  In his 3rd lifetime start, he finished 4th in the Peter Pan while still a maiden.  Trainer John Terranova added blinkers for his last start, which was contested on a yielding turf.  He will take on a classy group of maidens at Saratoga today, but just may be good enough at a nice price.

4:33  FL8 - Won - Paid  $8.10  $4.90  $4.00.  

#5 - Lune Lake (10/1) - This morning line seems to be off a bit, as this mare has won nine of her eleven lifetime starts at Finger Lakes.  There are a few in here that will make her earn it, but LUNE LAKE is capable of scoring the upset with her best effort.  She always seems to bring her A game at Finger Lakes venue.

July 26  Longshot Selection

4:15  DEL7 - Won at even money.  Race came off the turf and was run on the main track.

#2 - Beautiful Grace (8/1) - Trainer Jamie Ness started this filly's career on the grass and her debut was a winning one.  She has been holding her own on the dirt, but the conditioner has been trying to get her back on the lawn since local turf season began.  She will have additional maturity and better fitness when when heads back to the turf, so she's likely to produce a much improved fig at inflated odds.

July  21  Longshot Selection

4:29  IND5 - Finished 2nd - Lost head bob for the money.  Paid  X  $2.80  $2.20

#4 - Double Tuff (10/1) - DOUBLE TUFF was claimed for twenty-five thousand dollars seven races back by trainer, Kim Hammond.  The gelding must have needed some attention as he was shelved for ten months before returning to action.  Whatever was wrong must have been corrected as he reeled off three straight wins prior to being benched for the winter.  Upon his return for his 2021 campaign, DOUBLE TUFF caught two sloppy surfaces in a row prior to his win on a fast dirt surface.  He will benefit from the conditioning of having three races under his belt since the layoff and a confidence boost from winning his most recent start.

July 19  Longshot Selection

2:45  DEL4 - Finished 4th.  He did show early speed and accompanied the front-runner, but faded to fourth.  Will continue to monitor as he makes his way to Charles Town.

#7 - G Daddy (8/1) - Gelding was probably acquired for the West Virginia bullring due to his early speed and availability of his A Other Than condition.  However, at 8/1 he's still worth a look as his new connections churn out wins at a high rate.  Only mild improvement is needed to have him forget to stop against this batch.

July 17  Longshot Selection

5:03  SAR8 - 2nd by a nose.  Great effort with a disappointing finish - Paid  X  $4.60  $3.30

#7 - Witsel (8/1) -This son of Nyquist made an impressive debut at Tampa at the end of 2020 for trainer, Carlos Munoz.  WITSEL has been on the bench since, but shows up in the barn of Chad Brown sporting steady works since April.  Been working with stablemate and competitor in the race, CROWDED TRADE, and holding his own.  You get better odds and the services of Irad Ortiz with this longshot.

July 16  Longshot Selection

1:37  PIM3 - No good.  Backed out in a hurry after contending early on.

#9 - Jack Bo (8/1) - The five-eighths sprints at Pimlico have a tendency to produce some upset winners and today's third race may do just that.  JACK BO has won three sprints from five starts since being switched to the Feliciano barn.  JACK gets switched to the lawn for the first time in his career today by a conditioner capable of delivering with that angle.  There isn't much in the breeding to suggest he'll improve on the weeds, but there is a bullet drill on a yielding Laurel turf course two back to support an investment at substantial odds.

July 12  Longshot Selection

3:15  DEL5 - Won - Paid  $7.80  $5.60  $3.60

#1 - Award Wanted (8/1) - This filly was claimed four races back out of a winning effort for sixteen thousand never two in life.  Since the claim, she has caught two off surfaces and a soft turf.  AWARD WANTED should get a fast track for the first time since being haltered by John Robb.  This will be the first fast surface since the addition of blinkers, so there may be some surprise to the upside.

July 7  Longshot Selection

12:40  PIM1  No good.  Possible bounce.  Will continue to monitor.

#3 - Kickstarter (10/1) - Dale Capuano claimed this gelding from Hammy Smith back in September and gave him time off up until June.  He made his first start under waiver protection at Delaware Park and finished second.  He must feel as though there is something to the gelding as he is not taking the risk of losing him today.  He's had some success with other claims from the Smith barn, so this is worth the risk for the price.

July 6  Longshot Selection

2:18  WO3 - Finished 2nd - Paid  X  $4.00  $2.50  

Patient while caught in  traffic a couple times, closed to get the runner-up spot.

#6 - Bring Da Fudge (8/1) - In a race where today's morning-line  favorite exits the same race as BRING DA FUDGE, the two-and-change lengths difference at the finish of that races is liable to make too big a difference in odds come post-time here.  FUDGE appeared to be using the first race back in 2021 as a training race.  She displayed the up-back-up pattern that might indicate she was entered for an afternoon workout.  Assuming the connections got the necessary conditioning in that start, she could be well-meant at a price today.

July 6  Longshot Selection

5:31  IND7  No good.  Gave Amoss a little too much credit.  Should have stuck with my original thought that claiming from Brad Cox is a bad idea. 

#7 - I'm Intrigued (8/1) - Tom Amoss haltered this colt at Keeneland from Brad Cox (which is usually a bad idea) and immediately cut the price in half for his first start at Indiana Grand.  He fared well in his first start for Amoss and now he removes the shades and bumps him up to thirty-five for second after claim.  If the equipment change moves him up a bit, he's got a good chance to surprise this field

July 5  Longshot Selection

3:57  BEL7 - WON - Paid  $11.40  $5.40  $3.80  Another winning LL selection with odds cut in half.

#2 - Sister Otoole (10/1) - Trainer Graham Motion gave this filly two preps in Kentucky following her lay-up after her three-year-old season.  She improved in each of those starts as Graham added distance in each successive starts.  She'll go a mile and a quarter here, which appears as though it will be her preferred distance.

July 4  Longshot Selection

7:52  LS5 - WON - Paid $6.80  $3.60  $2.80  A couple of scratches helped drive her odds down to 2/1, but she did win.

#5 - Klayton's Kandy (8/1) - She has shown improved form since the last time she tried to go a route of ground on the turf.  In her two turf routes as a 2-year-old, KLAYTON'S KANDY showed speed and faded while setting ambitious fractions.  She will benefit from additional maturity and the addition of Lasix for her return to a turf route.  A reasonable pace provides a chance to upset at a decent price.

June 29 Longshot Selection

6:33  IND9 - Bet down to 3/5 ... No, thank you.  Finished 5th.  Speed and fade once again.

#2 - Suburban Court (10/1) - SUBURBAN COURT made his debut at Churchill Downs and found himself chasing 21 2/5 and 44 2/5 fractions in his 1st lifetime start.  He kept up for a half and then faded to last place.  For his second career start, he gets class relief with a drop to maiden claiming at Indiana Grande and adds Lasix - both moves that he should appreciate.

June 26 Longshot Selection

Delaware Park 2 - Belated close to be 3rd - Paid  X  X  $4.80

Auld Lange Syne - Won subsequent start while touted by NationwideWinners.com.

June 19  Longshot Follow-up

Churchill Downs Race 9 - No good. 

#12 - Guitty - Getting a break since poor effort.

June 17  Longshot Follow-up

Belmont Race 6 - Scratched

Harvey's Princess - Looks like something has gone awry with her.  No works since scratch. 

June 16  Longshot Follow-up

Thistledown Race 6 - Won.  Paid  $3.80  $2.80  $2.80

Lilac Lace - Ran 3rd in optional starter in next race.

June 15  Longshot Follow-up

Parx Race 9 - Finished out of the money.  

Mr. Doda - Has has a few subpar performances in a row now.  Time for a break?

June 14  Longshot Follow-up

Parx Race 10  WON Paid  $71.80  $31.00  $18.00

JAMES CIRO - Has had a decent work since.

June 10  Longshot Follow-up

Belmont Race 9  -  No good.  Sometimes you just misinterpret the cues.

#Big Little Risk - Has not been seen since.

May 30  Longshot Follow-up

Santa Anita Race 9  - Finished 2nd.

Carmelita's Man - Steady drills, but no starts since.

May 29  Longshot Follow-up

Arlington Park Race 6 - Finished 2nd.

Archiemyboy - Finished 3rd in subsequent start at Fanduel.  Entered on 7/13/21.

May 26  Longshot Follow-up

Delaware Park Race 9 - Finished 2nd

Brutus (12/1) - Runner-up in starter allowance since.

May 19  Longshot Follow-up

Indiana Grand Race 3 - Finished 1st

Cupp of Class - A 4th and a 2nd since the win.

May 15  Longshot Follow-up

Pimlico Race 10  - Finished 1st.  Paid $21.60  $9.00  $5.80

Firecrow - Just one work since this win on May 15th.

May 13 Longshot Follow-up

Evangeline Downs Race 6 - Finished 1st.  

Hallajoori - One poor start at Sunray and she went to the bench.

May 8 Longshot Follow-up

Belmont Race 10 - Finished 3rd.

MOON OVER MIAMI - Steady works, but no races since the Man o' War.  Saving for Saratoga?

May 4 Longshot Follow-up

Finger Lakes Race 7 - Finished 2nd. 

BASSMAN DAVE - A 3rd and 2 4ths since.  May need claiming company.

April 29 Longshot Follow-up

Belmont Race 7 - No good.  

Obsessed - No production since claim from Pletcher

April 24 Longshot Follow-up

Golden Gate Race 10 - No good.  Never really got involved in the race.

JOYMAKER - Returned to win her next two subsequent starts in allowance company

April 23 Longshot Follow-up

Pimlico Race 9  - No good.  

LUXERO - Claim is not panning out for connections.  Has a 6th, 4th and 2nd since LL identification.

April 22 Longshot Follow-up

Turf Paradise Race 8 - Finished 5th

MASTER RECOVERY - Moved tack to Emerald Downs and won his 2nd start there.

April 21 Longshot Follow-up

Keeneland Race 3  - WON @ 4/1 

READY TO POUNCE - Ran 5th in a Grade 3, but misfired in allowance race after that at 5/2.  Still waiting for this one to return to the lawn.

Indiana Grand Race 2  - Finished 2nd

TRADITIONAL ARCHER - Ran poorly in subsequent start and then broke her maiden in the following start.

April 19 Longshot Follow-up

Indiana Grand Race 2  - Finished 2nd

JILLS PASSION  - Finished on the board in each of her next 4 starts, the last being a win at Ellis Park.

April 10 Longshot Follow-up

Oaklawn Park Race 2  -  No Good  

REEF'S DESTINY - Probably not worth following, but he is moving to Canterbury to train.  

April 9 Longshot Follow-up

Aqueduct Race 5 -  No Good  

MR. KRINGLE - Seems to be racing himself into shape.  May need lighter competition.  Wait for claiming angle.

April 8 Longshot Follow-up

Laurel Race 7  - No Good - Speed till mid-stretch.  Not urged for her best once passed.

MOSLER'S TOUCH - She has shown nothing since this selection was published.  Her single encouraging race appears to have been a fluke.

April 7 Longshot Follow-up

Keeneland Race 5  -  Finished 5th

NEVER CONTENT - As of this update, she has only made one subsequent start and finished 4th.  Actively training - last work was at Saratoga

April 6 Longshot Follow-up

Mahoning Valley Race 5 - Finished 4th

IHADADREAM returned to win 2 of his next 3 starts.

Mahoning Valley Race 5 - Finished 3rd

TRINNI DANCER - Ran 2nd, 3rd and 2nd in his next 3 starts.  Appears to prefer to fill out the bottom part of exotics.

April 4 Longshot Follow-up

Santa Anita Race 9  -  Finished 2nd

KEEP DANCING - Returned to win both of her starts in May.  

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